If tweets were votes, Duterte wins
In an exclusive analysis by the Manila Bulletin through Future Gen International Pte, Ltd., their study finds that if the tweets on Twitter were translated into votes, strongman candidate former Mayor Rodrigo Duterte would win the presidential election.
The analysis by the Singaporean based company analyzed the sentiments of the tweets tweeted through Twitter regarding presidential candidates, and used these to gauge who would most likely win the elections. Duterte came out on top, and remained the most preferred presidential candidate by Twitter users. According to the analysis, tweets about Duterte totaled 44, 991 from users who have more than 300 followers.
The study also factored in "hired" Twitter army posters, which typically have less than 300 followers but spam their feed with pro-Duterte content, as well as spam content. Despite all of this, Duterte still came out on top.
Even though he is currently being battered with corruption charges, hidden wealth, and ghost employees at the local government from his rivals, positive Duterte tweets still number 18,869 versus negative tweets of 11,811. Neutral tweets were 14,311.
The second most talked about presidentiable was Vice President Jejomar Binay. 9,888 were positive mentions. Surprisingly, only 5,598 were negative reactions, while 7,593 remained neutral. After Binay as the most talked about candidate is Liberal Party standard bearer Mar Roxas. There were 5,300 positive tweets, 9,161 neutral tweets, and 5,973 negative tweets about the former secretary.
Coming in at a distant fourth place is second placer Grace Poe, gathering a mere 8,793 tweets in total, of which 2,938 were positive, 3,647 were neutral, and 2,208 were negative. Presidential aspirant Miram remained one of the fewest candidates talked about, despite pinning her strengths as a social media giant. An even further last place at only 2,431 total number of tweets. 1,645 were positive, 426 were neutral, and 360 were negative.
What it means
The scope of the study was between May 3 (12 MN) until May 7 (8 AM). President of Future Gen Wilson Chua noted that while the results are not conclusive, it could be a big indicator on who is going to win the election two days from now.
"Is social sentiment analysis a good predictor of election outcomes? The final proof will come on election day”, Chua told the Manila Bulletin.