Experts debunk claims of Marcos-Robredo electoral fraud; call for responsible data science

Experts debunk claims of Marcos-Robredo electoral fraud; call for responsible data science

EDITOR'S NOTE: A Facebook note by De La Salle University (DLSU) professor Antonio P. Contreras has taken the social media site by storm. Contreras argues that there are deliberate attempts to rig the 2016 Philippine elections against vice presidential candidate Bongbong Marcos based on his interpretation of the data he gathered. In response to Contreras, 104 experts and academicians seek for higher standards of professional integrity and competence and debunks Contreras' claims of electronic electoral fraud. 

People need to be able to trust data. This means there is a great responsibility on the part of those who collect, analyze, interpret, and report data, especially when it concerns matters of public interest.

Experts debunk claims of Marcos-Robredo electoral fraud; call for responsible data science

(Photo credit: abs-cbn)

We, the undersigned data scientist- engaged in mathematics, statistics, modelling, programming, analysis, and visualization- hold each other accountable to the highest standards of professional integrity and competence.

Recently, there has been public confusion on assertions of electoral fraud based on the analysis of data from election returns. In light of this, we make the following appeal:

* To those who analyze and interpret data:

-to exercise prudence and nuance in the statement of their conclusions

-to clearly cite the data sources and methodology used in their analysis

-to subject their results to critical peer review, prior to and after publication

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself- and you are the easiest person

to fool."

-Richard Feynman

* To those who report on results of data analysis:

-to refrain from reporting claims at face value without careful vetting

-to seek multiple independent assessments of the validity of the analysis and conclusions before publication

-to report with proper perspective, context, depth, and nuance

”Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

-Carl Sagan

* To those who read reports and claims based on data analysis:

-to view statements made by experts with a healthy amount of skepticism and not automatically accept them as correct and valid

-to look for multiple independent assessments before judging the correctness and validity of an analysis and its conclusions

-to refrain from spreading unverified claims without sucient critical evaluation

"Don't believe everything you read on the Internet."

-Abraham Lincoln Meme

As a community, we believe in the power of data to raise the level of national discourse—not only in the context of the electoral process, but in many other areas of public concern, including health, disasters, and security, among others. We welcome the greater availability of open datasets in the country and the opportunity to harness this data for the public good.

We recognize that with this power comes great responsibility. To be trusted to use data correctly and responsibly, we must raise the level of transparency and accountability within our own community. In the spirit of peer review, we have the duty not only to be careful in the work that we do, but also to be critical of the work of others.

Here, we assert that an inverted V-shaped graph of the difference of votes between vice-presidential candidates Marcos and Robredo, plotted against the percentage of votes transmitted, does not amount to evidence of fraud. Given that the votes came in from different regions at different times, the shape of the graph is, in fact, the expected pattern. Many individuals and groups carried out independent analyses and communicated technical and logical arguments arriving at this conclusion.

The ability to give and receive critical feedback, without personal malice, is a core value of the scientific culture, a value essential to the integrity of the scientific enterprise.

This statement is made in this spirit| without ill intent toward any individual, but out of a sense of duty to the community.

The undersigned 104 signatories as of May 24, 2016, include the following:

1. Paolo Abarcar, Ph.D., Department of Economics, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor

2. Mitch Abdon, Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist, DAI

3. Luisito Abueg, Assistant Professor, School of Economics, De La Salle University

4. Christian Alis, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University College London

5. Velimor Almonte, Assistant Professor in Mathematics, Malayan Colleges Laguna

6. Ricardo Ang III, Instructor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

7. Romer Kristi Aranas, Research Associate, PHL-Microsat DPAD

8. Jefferson Arapoc, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Banos

9. Mary Grace Bacus, Analytics Consultant

10. Rick Bahague, Data Scientist, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

11. John Baluyut, Assistant Professor, University of Great Falls

12. Francis Bautista, Data Scientist, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

13. Julian Bautista, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

14. Marinel Benosa, Analyst, Meralco

15. Allan B. I. Bernardo, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Psychology, University of Macau

16. Ebba Boye, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

17. Oliver Braunschweig, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

18. Joseph Brillantes, Data Scientist, YesCredit, Inc.

19. Jeric Briones, Instructor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

20. Carl Dominick Calub, Data Analyst, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

21. Renz Adrian Calub, Assistant Professorial Lecturer, School of Economics, De La Salle University

22. Michelle Castillo, Graduate Student, UP National College of Public Administration and Governance

23. Raymond Castillo, Data & Analytics Lead

24. Peter Julian Cayton, Assistant Professor, School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman

25. Christine Chan, Research Assistant, Ateneo de Manila University

26. Geoffrey Chua, Assistant Professor, Nanyang Technological University

27. Nathania Chua, Instructor, Department of Quantitative Methods and Information

Technology, Ateneo de Manila University

28. Angelo Luis Cortez, Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

29. Joshua Cortez, Data Science Analyst, DataSeer

30. Lucinda David, Ph.D. Candidate, Lund University

31. Leandro de Castro, Assistant Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of the Philippines Los Banos

32. Emmanuel Lorenzo de los Santos, Research Fellow, University of Warwick

33. Pecier Paul Decierdo, Science Education Officer, The Mind Museum

34. John Michael dela Paz, Instructor, College of Education, University of the Philippines Diliman

35. Jonnel dela Rosa, Data Scientist, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

36. Mariel Rae Kho Fangre, Consumer Insights Manager

37. Abigail Favis, Instructor, Department of Environment Science, Ateneo de Manila University

38. Jaime Miguel Favis, Data Analyst, Altitude Games

39. Cherry Frondozo, Knowledge Management and Research Coordinator, Asian Institute of Management

40. Roderick Galam, Research Associate, Free University of Berlin

41. Melissa Garabiles, Instructor, Department of Psychology, Ateneo de Manila University

42. David Garcia, Geographer and Urban Planner

43. Felan Carlo Garcia, Science Research Specialist, Advanced Science and Technology Institute

44. Miguel Barretto Garcia, Ph.D. Student, University of Zurich

45. Albert Gavino, Data Scientist, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

46. Maria Carissa Geronimo, Data Analyst

47. Charlotte Kendra Gotangco, Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Ateneo de Manila University

48. Jason Haw, Lecturer, Health Sciences Program, Ateneo de Manila University

49. Erin Hayde, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

50. Nathaniel Hermosa II, Associate Professor, National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

51. Riel Carlo Ingeniero, M.S. Student, Universiteit Gent/Universiteit Antwerpen/Vrije Universiteit Brussel

52. Ivy Intano, Analytics Consultant, BusinessMinds

53. Rowen Iral, Chief Science Officer, TIMS Philippines

54. Justin Irigo, Advanced Analytics, Globe Telecom

55. Angelyn Lao, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, De La Salle University

56. Carmela Lao, Quant Trader

57. Arnold Lau, M.A. Candidate, Columbia University

58. Vernel Lawas, Assistant Professor, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Ba~nos

59. Jean Loyola, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Bannos

60. David Maddy, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

61. Juan Carlo Mallari, Instructor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

62. Gayline Manalang, Jr., Assistant Professor & CIDS Research Fellow, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of the Philippines Manila

63. Ino Mantaring, Data Scientist, Talas Data Intelligence, Inc.

64. Jesus Lemuel Martin, Jr., Instructor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

65. Douglas McDonald, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

66. Adrian Mendoza, Ph.D. Candidate, School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman

67. Kristin Militante, Assistant Professor, Department of Finance and Accounting, Ateneo de Manila University

68. Katrina Miradora, Graduate Student, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

69. Felix Muga II, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

70. Ma. Regina Paz Onglao, Lecturer, Ateneo de Manila University

71. Yasmin Ortiga, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Nanyang Technological University

72. Selen Ozcelik, Graduate Student, The New School for Social Research

73. Remrick Patagan, Research Director, Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis, Inc.

74. JC Albert Peralta, Research Assistant, Ateneo de Manila University

75. Cilicia Uzziel Perez, Graduate Student, National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

76. Jan Carlo Punongbayan, Ph.D. Student, School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman

77. Jomar Rabajante, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Ba~nos

78. Radine Rafols, Consultant, Asian Development Bank

79. Vicente Reventar III, Lecturer, John Gokongwei School of Management, Ateneo de Manila University

80. Reinabelle Reyes, Ph.D., Lecturer, Department of Information Systems and Computer Science, Ateneo de Manila University

81. Rosula Reyes, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Electronics, Computer,

and Communications Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University

82. Nigel Rimando, Instructor, Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University

83. Joseph Roxas, Researcher, Savvysherpa, Inc.

84. Kidjie Saguin, Research Assistant, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

85. Joel Sanqui, Professor of Statistics, Appalachian State University

86. Kurt Gerrard See, Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota

87. Julius Sempio, Research Associate, PHL-Microsat DPAD

88. Francis James Singun, Business Analytics Lead

89. Beatrice Victoria Sison, Data Science Analyst, DataSeer

90. Aivin Solatorio, Lead Data Scientist, Kalibrr

91. Kimberly Solon, Ph.D. Candidate, Lund University

92. Kendall Stephenson, Legislative Financial Analyst, New York City Council

93. Marion Lara Tan, Instructor, Department of Finance and Accounting, Ateneo de Manila University

94. Martha Lauren Tan, Lecturer, Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Technology, Ateneo de Manila University

95. Randy Tua~no, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University

96. Jerrold Tubay, D.Sc., Assistant Professor, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Banos

97. Jerome Unidad, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Researcher, Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH

98. Alvin Patrick Valentin, Instructor, Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Technology, Ateneo de Manila University

99. Michael Francis Ian Vega, Ph.D., Associate Professor, National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines Diliman

100. John Paul Vergara, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Information Systems and Computer Science, Ateneo de Manila University

101. Deborah Villa, Lecturer, Department of Environmental Science, Ateneo de Manila University

102. Alyson Yap, M.B.A., Instructor, Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Technology, Ateneo de Manila University

103. Andrew Yap, Analytics Consulting Lead, Nexus Technologies, Inc.

104. William Yu, Lecturer, Ateneo de Manila University

RELATED: 

Related news

Pinoy beki student brutally beats up high school girl in front of their schoolmates

Pinoy beki student brutally beats up high school girl in front of their schoolmates

Gay Pinoy student brutally beats up high school girl in front of their schoolmates