COVID-19 curve in PH may flatten by the end of August, UP expert claims

COVID-19 curve in PH may flatten by the end of August, UP expert claims

- An expert claimed that the country may start flattening the COVID-19 curve by the end of August or September

- The latest data showed that the COVID-19 reproduction number in the country is decreasing

- The expert also mentioned that the number of cases is decreasing as well

- However, it will still take months before it will reach a “very manageable” level even if the curve has flattened

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An expert from a research team of the University of the Philippines claimed that the COVID-19 curve in the Philippines may flatten by the end of August or September.

KAMI learned that the possibility would be bigger if the modified enhanced community quarantine was imposed longer.

COVID-19 curve in PH may flatten by the end of August, UP expert claims
Photo from Getty Images
Source: Getty Images

In a report by Inquirer (authored by Catherine Gonzales), Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team explained that the curve may start flattening soon because the reproduction number of COVID-19 is decreasing.

“Noong one week ago pa, nakikita namin bumababa na ‘yung trend sa buong Pilipinas, ‘yung reproduction number. Pati na sa National Capital Region bumababa na rin ‘yung r-naught natin. Ngayon halos malapit na sya sa 1. Ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayo magflatten ng curve,” Dr. David said.

The r-naught is the number of new infections estimated from a single case of COVID-19.

As reported by Manila Bulletin (authored by Gabriela Baron), the number of new cases is decreasing and he is hopeful that it will remain that way.

“Ibig sabihin kumokonti na rin finally yung bilang ng kaso, sana magpatuloy na. Pwede pa kasing tumaas ito, pero sa nakita namin, bumababa na talaga yung trend,” he said.

“Sana ma-sustain natin yan, ma-flatten natin at mapababa na yung kaso sa NCR at sa CALABARZON,” he continued.

However, in a report by ABS-CBN News, Dr. David explained that even though the curve will flatten, it will take a month or two before the number will reach a “very manageable” level.

“Hindi naman ibig sabihin flatten iyong curve, tapos na… Kaya kailangan, talagang continuous iyong effort natin. Hindi tayo puwedeng magpabaya kasi puwedeng magka-surge ulit iyan,” Dr. David said.

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According to the Department of Health (DOH), there are 194,251 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Philippines as of August 24, 2020.

In an earlier report by KAMI, a doctor passed away after she was discharged from the hospital. She tested positive for COVID-19 twice.

Meanwhile, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III confirmed that many nurses have decided to stop working because of the COVID-19 threat in the country.

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