- A research team from the University of the Philippines made a forecast of the number of COVID-19 cases by the end of June
- UP Professor Dr. Guido David said that there could be 40,000 COVID-19 cases by June 30
- The forecast was based on current trends and data given to them by the Department of Health
- Earlier, the UP research team forecasted that there will be 24,000 COVID-19 cases by June 15 if the enhanced community quarantine is lifted
- As of posting time, there are now 23,732 confirmed number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines
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A group of researchers and scientists from the University of the Philippines gave their projection for the number of COVID-19 cases by June 30.
KAMI learned that according to their study, it is possible to have 40,000 COVID-19 cases in the country by the end of June.
In a report by the Inquirer (authored by Catherine Gonzales), Professor Guido David of the University of the Philippines Institute of Mathematics explained that the data was based on current trends on the COVID-19 data given by the Department of Health (DOH).
“Right now, ‘yung projection namin, ginamit lang namin ‘yung R0 (pronounced R-naught) na 1.2 sa Philippines. So ‘yung projection actually is nasa 40,000 cases by June 30,” he said.
“In-assume lang namin na 1.2. Kung bumaba ‘yung R0—which is bumababa pa—kasi yung NCR less than 1 ‘yung R0 so pag i-project natin ‘yan, mas konti naman ‘yung cases,” he added.
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However, David said that their projections are just estimates of reality and it could be different from the actual results.
“Kapag may forecast kami, hindi naman namin sinasabi na ‘yan talaga ang lalabas. Nakadepend siya sa factors and nakadepend siya sa data na pinoprovide ng DOH,” he said.
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Meanwhile, in an earlier report by the Manila Bulletin (authored by Rizal Obanil), the UP research team projected that there will be 24,000 cases of COVID-19 by June 15 if the enhanced community quarantine would be lifted in Metro Manila.
“Our data suggest that a premature relaxation of the ECQ in the NCR (National Capital Region) may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases and 1,700 deaths by June 15, 2020,” it said.
As of posting time, June 11, there are now 23,732 confirmed number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines.
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